MINSK, June 6 – Sputnik. Following Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE, the authorities of the eastern part of Libya, Yemen, as well as the Maldives and Mauritius announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar.

These countries accuse Doha of supporting terrorist organizations and destabilizing the situation in the Middle East.

A number of countries announced the adoption of a series of other measures, including the cessation of sea and air traffic with Qatar and the expulsion of its diplomats and citizens. The Qatari authorities expressed regret over this and called the decisions of foreign partners unfounded.

The UN is closely monitoring the situation with Qatar, with which some Middle Eastern countries broke off diplomatic relations on Monday, said the official representative of the secretary general of the world organization, Stephane Dujarric.

King's ransom

Qatar has paid up to $1 billion for the ransom of members of the royal family kidnapped in Iraq, the Financial Times writes, citing sources close to the situation.

Doha has paid for the release of 26 Qatari royals in southern Iraq and "50 militants captured by jihadists in Syria," militant commanders and government officials in the region say. Qatar has transferred money to the al-Qaeda-linked group fighting in Syria and Iranian security services.

The deal took place in April. A source close to the Qatari government said that "payments have been made."

Qatar Statement

Qatar does not intend to aggravate relations with countries that have announced the severance of all ties with Doha, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Abderrahman Al Thani said.

“Qatar from its own country will not take measures aimed at escalating the situation, since it believes that such problems should be resolved between fraternal states at the negotiating table,” the head of the Qatari Foreign Ministry said in an interview with Al Jazeera TV channel.

According to him, Qatar will not aggravate the situation, even despite the fact that tough unilateral measures were taken against this country, which had a negative impact on the citizens of the Gulf countries, who are connected, among other things, by family ties.

Panic in stores and traffic jams at the border

The Egyptian news portal Youm7, citing eyewitness accounts, reported that Qatari residents were rushing to buy food and drinking water on Monday. According to the portal, shelves are immediately empty after news of the closure of borders with Saudi Arabia, through which there was a large flow of food.

© AP / Doha News via AP

The media reported that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have stopped exporting sugar to Qatar. According to the agency, Qatar is heavily dependent on sugar supplies from these countries; in total, just under 100 thousand tons are imported per year. The demand for sugar is especially high during the fasting month of Ramadan.

Iran is ready to supply Qatar with all types of food products amid the cessation of supplies from the Persian Gulf countries due to a diplomatic scandal, said the head of the Iranian Association for the Import of Agricultural Products, Reza Noorani.

As Al-Jazeera TV channel reported, heavy trucks are already accumulating in the area of ​​the Saudi-Qatar border and cannot enter Qatari territory.

Interrupted flight

Qatar's national airline, Qatar Airways, will suspend all flights to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt on Tuesday, June 6, until further notice, according to a statement on the airline's website.

“All customers booked on affected flights will be provided with alternative options, including a full refund on any unused ticket and free re-booking to a nearby Qatar Airways network destination,” the statement said.

Market reaction

The diplomatic row in the Persian Gulf has also affected the global economy: the dollar is declining on Tuesday morning amid general concerns in markets due to geopolitical tensions in the world.

The oil market also reacted to the severance of diplomatic relations between a number of Arab countries and Qatar. Prices initially jumped on fears of supply disruptions, but then began to decline as experts pointed to negligible risks of such a scenario. In addition, a number of economists pointed to the danger that due to political differences between OPEC members, the agreement on limiting production could be disrupted.

Russia's position

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held phone conversation with his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdel Rahman bin Jassem al Thani, the Russian Foreign Ministry reports.

“The main attention was paid to the sharp deterioration of relations between Qatar and a number of other Arab states,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement released on Monday.

“Serious concern was expressed about the emergence of a new source of tension within the Arab world. Sergei Lavrov spoke in favor of overcoming the emerging contradictions at the negotiating table, through mutually respectful dialogue in the face of unprecedented challenges, primarily the threat of terrorism,” notes the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Why did the Arab states break off relations with Qatar, does it support radical Islamists, how does a small country fan the flames of revolution among its neighbors in self-defense, what happens to its economy during the blockade, and what does Russia have to do with it? Grigory Lukyanov, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the National Research University, told the site. HSE".

Gregory, today’s events in Qatar, with which its neighbors severed diplomatic relations in a very harsh manner, came as a surprise to many. What's happening and why? But first, tell us a little about Qatar itself. Where did he come from? What makes it unusual?

Qatar is a young state. It is extremely small compared to its neighbors both in size and population (less than two million people). Qatar only gained independence from Britain in the 1970s. The country reacts quite quickly to changes in the region and is consistently modernizing its political system. Unlike Saudi Arabia, it is not an absolute monarchy. Nevertheless, the emir, his family and court play a key role in the political system.

Qatar is a very rich state. High incomes are achieved through exports natural resources, especially natural gas. Third place in the world in terms of proven reserves, consistently among the top ten gas exporting countries. The country also has a large fleet of tanker ships, which allows it to feel very comfortable and trade gas with the most different countries. This produces a high GDP per capita, which made Qatar immune to the challenges of the Arab Spring.

Gulf countries

Wikimedia Commons

Qatar felt perhaps most calm and protected and therefore actively supported revolutionary changes in other countries, providing a platform for the deployment of opposition groups from Libya, Syria, Egypt, and Palestine. We are beginning to learn about Qatar largely thanks to the Al-Jazeera channel created by the emir in 1996, the mouthpiece of Qatari foreign policy.

So how true are the accusations put forward (and not just now) that Qatar supports radical Islamists, including from the Islamic State (an organization banned in the Russian Federation)?

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other states accuse Qatar of supporting three forces: the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. In fact, at the state level, Qatar only helps the Muslim Brotherhood. At first they were accepted as political refugees. But then they turned into an instrument of influence: the same Al-Jazeera was used for propaganda in the countries from which they migrated.

This tool turned out to be very powerful and very important: Qatar is a small country, but very rich. It has real reasons to desire non-interference in its internal affairs both from the superpowers and from its “big” neighbors. Qatar has a little brother complex who doesn't want his big brother to come into his room and steal his toys. To this end, Qatar has been trying to increase its role in the region over the past ten years - with the help of Al-Jazeera, the Muslim Brotherhood and an active foreign policy game.

Grigory Lukyanov

In 2009-2010, Qatar tried to present itself as an independent mediator in resolving regional conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and so on. During the Arab Spring, he actively supported the revolutionary movement and achieved the maximum with minimal effort: the United States moved the Air and Space Operations Control Center to Qatar (one of four such foreign centers). In addition to the US air base, which was already located there, an important intelligence, communications, and control center was added. America has become the de facto guarantor military security Katara. Now no external military forces can enter the country!

So, here are the four pillars: the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Jazeera, natural gas, which provides all this with huge amounts of money, including per capita, which is why the people are not worried and are faithful to their power. Finally, the American military presence. Based on these pillars, Qatar has pursued an extremely active, bold, and, one might say, provocative foreign policy over the past six years. He intervened in the Libyan and Syrian crises, pointedly emphasizing his independence from Saudi Arabia, his “big brother.”

- So, support for IS and Al-Qaeda is still rumors and innuendo?

You understand, none of the modern states of the Arabian Peninsula will support a structure whose goal is to capture Mecca and Medina and destroy these states.

But this does not negate another circumstance: in all these countries there are individuals, individuals, sometimes even very wealthy people who occupy a high position in society, who share the ideas of the “Islamic State.” And for them it is worthy of all support.

Grigory Lukyanov

Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science, HSE

But don’t the leaders of these states, who have a lot of power, have the ability to stop this funding?

There are Islamic banking institutions that are not always controlled by the state. These flows, whose organization is based mainly on trust, are often beyond the control of the state. Sometimes, even knowing about some flows, the authorities cannot prevent the transfer of funds in any way: this will affect the interests of entire groups of elites. They will feel that their finances are no longer secure. And then the state will face serious internal opposition.

In fact, many political leaders are more likely to use the Islamic State factor as a justification for certain popular (or not so popular) decisions. But I would be careful not to talk about direct contacts.

Fine. What is happening now? Qatar has built a powerful base for itself, and suddenly a rupture in diplomatic relations and the closure of borders with all its neighbors! Or is it not quite “suddenly”? Or is this not entirely dangerous for him?

Now a lot has changed. Firstly, a change of political leader in the United States. Trump is no longer Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Clinton and Obama were ready for an active role for Qatar; they saw it as a restraining force in relation to Saudi Arabia - strong, large, powerful.

Trump relied on traditional ties. The Saudis, in fact, met him halfway. Of course, they restored ties, increased military orders, increased financial obligations. And Trump's first visit to the Middle East, which was to Saudi Arabia, was a symbolic gesture. I admit that at this meeting certain framework agreements could have been agreed upon on how regional policy would be structured in the medium term.

And Saudi Arabia, most likely, received a certain carte blanche to solve a number of problems. And Qatar is an important part of these problems. There are a number of crises unfolding today: Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Qatar plays a role in each of these crises. In Yemen it is minimal, but in Syria and Libya there are entire political opposition groups that at one time received generous funding from Qatar.

- What about Saudi Arabia? As for Syria, as for Libya... It doesn’t even border them!

Today, Saudi Arabia, or more precisely, its closest neighbors (UAE and Egypt) really need a solution the current conflict situation in Syria and Libya. In particular, a political settlement is badly needed in Libya. This is essential for Egypt, otherwise Egypt will have to fight a war on two fronts: in Sinai against the Islamic State and on the border with Libya.

A political settlement was outlined in Abu Dhabi on May 2 this year, but a week later it was disrupted by an attack by irregular armed forces, which had previously received support from Qatar and Turkey, on the positions of the Libyan National Army. And as a result, peace negotiations between the east and west of Libya broke down, and today again a political settlement is postponed. The UAE and Egypt, which spent enormous amounts of energy organizing this peace process, found themselves hostage to groups supported by Qatar. Now they, of course, blame Qatar for this, although, of course, Qatar here is also more likely a victim of its clients, whom it does not control. He can finance them, give them support, but he does not control them. They are absolutely independent in this regard.

And, on the other hand, Yemen. In Yemen, the interests of the UAE and Saudi Arabia diverge. The Saudis need to improve relations with the Emirates, and here, accordingly, an exchange operates. Bash to bash: in Yemen the UAE will make concessions, and in Libya the Saudis will make concessions. In this way, some kind of balance will be built and a political settlement will be achieved where necessary. The United States needs this for one purpose only: Trump promised a quick victory over ISIS. And now, without resolving these conflicts on the ground, victory over ISIS cannot be achieved. Neither in the case of Syria with the attack on Raqqa, nor in the case of the capture of Mosul in Iraq, nor, accordingly, with the victory over “IS” in the Sinai, nor with the victory over “IS” in Libya.

Everywhere it is necessary to create a more or less reliable coalition, and Qatar acts as a troublemaker. He needs to be given an answer, he needs to be reasoned with, and since the United States itself does not want to participate in this under Trump, they leave it to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE.

Grigory Lukyanov

Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science, HSE

Donald Trump met with the President of Egypt in Washington in mid-spring; He met with the King of Saudi Arabia during his visit, and he also spoke with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi in April. As a result, apparently, this method of solving the problem appeared.

This is a serious blow for Qatar today. The closure of the land border with Saudi Arabia and the withdrawal of all diplomats are truly a blow to sore spots. No one can send in troops, but diplomatic isolation is bad for business. Already now the Qatari stock exchange is beginning to collapse, stock markets are beginning to falter, shares of Qatari banks and Qatari companies are beginning to be dumped. As a result, this is a blow to what is most precious to them, to what lies in their foundation - the very income that ensures their well-being.

Hence the second problem: there is no land border with anyone except Saudi Arabia. When the Saudis close the border, any goods will stop flowing through the land, including food and water, which is also imported into the country in some volume. Qatar has other partners with whom it trades, such as Kuwait. Neither Kuwait nor Oman have yet severed diplomatic relations. There is still an opportunity for Qatar to retreat and surrender. Through them you can contact the rest of the Arab states.

On the other hand, there is another partner who is always talked about. This is Iran. Qatar and Iran have economic ties, maritime trade, and they also share the same gas field. This position, of course, pushes Qatar towards Iran. This could further worsen relations with Saudi Arabia (which is in sharp conflict with Iran). But for now, Qatar has the opportunity to retreat and surrender.

- Tell me, is the 2022 FIFA World Cup... Is it under threat?

I think that by then the conflict will be resolved in one direction or another, and transport links with Qatar will be open.

- And the last question. Russia. Does she have any place in this conflict? Could it be?

Today there is a fairly active exchange of views between our and the Qatari foreign ministers. In the current conditions, we must remember that the history of our relations has many contradictory moments. In 2004, one of the leaders of the Chechen separatists was eliminated in Qatar. (Zelimkhan Yandarbiev, - website note), which was perceived as a violation of the country's sovereignty. On the other hand, not long ago Qatar played an important role in the privatization of Rosneft. We have learned to separate economic interests from political ones.

That is, we can assume that our relations will not worsen. Yes, we are competitors in the gas market. But in the long term, both Russia and Qatar are interested in maintaining high prices for gas and oil. This makes us, if not partners, then at least we are in the same boat; we need the world's production centers to depend on our gas supplies.

At all last years showed that Russia must have a certain level of relations with Qatar in order to be able to influence the situation in the Middle East. Where Qatar has entered, it is necessary to talk with it directly in order to find consensus on issues that concern us. In Syria, for example, we have to communicate with Qatar, despite the fact that we support forces hostile to each other.

Russia, I think, will now take a balanced position. We don't have much to lose in relations with Qatar. But there are certain prospects, opportunities to win. However, it is too early to predict this.

Why are Arab countries breaking off relations with Qatar?

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (left, foreground) and Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa (right, foreground)


Bahrain is breaking off diplomatic relations with Qatar, Reuters reports citing the kingdom's state media. Manama accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and interfering in the internal affairs of Bahrain.

Air and sea communications between the countries have been suspended. Bahrain also ordered its citizens to leave Qatar within 14 days.

Qatari nationals also have two weeks to leave Bahrain, and Qatari diplomats are given 48 hours, Al Arabiya reports.

Qatar “wreaked havoc in Bahrain, blatantly violating all agreements and principles of international law, without taking into account values, rights, morals, trampling on the principles of good neighborliness and commitment to permanent relations between the Gulf countries, rejecting all previous commitments,” it notes in the statement.

In turn, Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar and stopped transport links with it. As stated in Riyadh, this step is necessary to protect the kingdom from “terrorism and extremism.” Saudi Arabia called on "all brotherly countries and companies to do the same."

Following Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Egypt announced the severance of relations with Qatar and the cessation of communications, also accusing Doha of supporting terrorism, including the extremist organization Muslim Brotherhood.

The UAE also supported the move, stressing that Qatar is “undermining security” in the region. Qatari diplomats have been given 48 hours to leave the country.

According to RIA Novosti, the conflict between Qatar and its neighbors occurred a week after the summit of the Gulf countries and the United States in Riyadh, when the Qatar News Agency posted a speech on behalf of the emir in support of building relations with Iran. At the summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on behalf of all the guests at the meeting, condemned Iran for its hostile policies and threatened an adequate response. Later, a representative of the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that the agency's website was hacked, and the speech on behalf of the emir was published by hackers and had no relation to the Qatari leader.

However, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain found the denial unconvincing and continue to insist that the words about normalizing relations with Iran really belong to the emir. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash called on Qatar to change its policy and not repeat previous mistakes in order to restore relations with its neighbors.

A coalition led by Saudi Arabia, formed to fight rebels in Yemen, has accused Qatar of supporting the terrorist organizations Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, Al Arabiya reports.

Based on this accusation, the coalition suspended Qatar's participation in the Yemen operation.

Earlier, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar. Air and sea communications with Doha have been suspended.

Arab countries accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and destabilizing the situation in the region. Egypt, in particular, said that Doha supports the Muslim Brotherhood.

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Russia are included in the list of terrorist organizations, for participation in whose activities criminal liability is provided.

The conflict between Qatar and its neighbors occurred a week after the summit of the Gulf countries and the United States in Riyadh. The Qatar News Agency posted a speech on behalf of the emir in support of building relations with Iran. At the summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on behalf of all the guests at the meeting, condemned Iran for its hostile policies and threatened an adequate response. A representative of the Qatari Foreign Ministry said later that the agency's website was hacked, and a speech on behalf of the emir was published by hackers and had no relation to the Qatari leader.

Source Lenta.ru

The countries that opposed Qatar promised not only to expel Qatari diplomats, but also to stop all land, air and sea communications with this emirate. The monarchy is also excluded from the Saudi-led coalition participating in the military intervention in Yemen (this country, by the way, also broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar).

Official Doha has already responded to the decision of those Arab states to suspend relations with Qatar, calling it without legal justification and violating Qatari sovereignty. The monarchy itself has been described as the victim of a "deceitful campaign" designed to destabilize the region.

Actively playing in the regional arena (and far beyond the borders of the Persian Gulf region and the Arabian Peninsula), Qatar has long irritated many Arab countries. In particular, with its support for the Muslim Brotherhood group (the organization is recognized as terrorist, its activities are prohibited in Russia) and Sunni Islamist groups associated with it. At the same time, the Qataris are accused of supporting pro-Iranian forces in the region. Doha has repeatedly denied accusations of sponsoring extremist groups - but few have any doubts about huge role, which this emirate played in helping various groups of the Syrian armed opposition, including such as the terrorist “Al-Nusra Front” banned in Russia.

In the recent past, Qatar itself has repeatedly made loud foreign policy moves. He broke off diplomatic relations either with Israel or with Iran. But, ironically, one of the reasons for the current diplomatic aggravation in the Gulf region was the scandalous story of the appearance at the end of May of comments from the Qatari monarch about the desirability of improving relations with Iran. (And Tehran, as you know, is a real bone in the throat for Saudi Arabia). In Qatar, this information was called “fake” and it was blamed on some hackers who hacked the website of the state news agency. Be that as it may, the Arab neighbors responded by blocking Qatar-based media, including the famous Al-Jazeera satellite network, which often criticizes the Saudi and Egyptian authorities.

Although the statements by Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Cairo and Manama to end relations with Qatar were made separately, there is a clear sense of consistency between them.

“In reality, what is happening is a reaction, which is not the first, to Qatar’s political behavior related to the fact that this country seeks to develop relations with Iran,” says Dr. historical sciences, Professor of the Russian State University for the Humanities Grigory KOSACH. – Which, on the one hand, contradicts the point of view of other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. On the other hand, Qatar has long become a place where (as in London to a certain extent) there are representatives of all opposition movements in the Arab world - from the Muslim Brotherhood to Hamas and Syrian Islamist organizations. And this causes extreme dissatisfaction both in the Gulf states and in Egypt (since Qatar still hosts some prominent figures of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. This is not a new phenomenon: in 2014, similar events already took place (then Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and The UAE recalled its ambassadors from Doha - “MK”) But then it was less painful: only the withdrawal of ambassadors took place. Today, everything is much more serious. This is an attempt to stop Qatar and force it to follow the same path as other Gulf states. can be quite significant: a virtual blockade of Qatar has been introduced, Qatari citizens are prohibited from entering the territories of the respective countries (although an exception was made for Qataris going on the Hajj to Mecca. The country finds itself in strict isolation...).

At first glance, the enmity between Qatar and Saudi Arabia may seem strange - from an ideological point of view, these two Wahhabi monarchies are on the same side of the barricades on many issues. However, it is not difficult to notice the emerging rivalry between these countries for the role of leader in the Arab-Islamic world.

“When we talk about several Arab countries in this situation, the main one is Saudi Arabia,” says the head of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Vasily KUZNETSOV. – There have long been contradictions between this country and Qatar (they existed in 2011 and later), which sometimes escalate. Qatar wants to play an independent role - and this is often seen by the Saudi authorities as destructive for the region. But I would not overestimate what happened, because we already had examples of the severance of diplomatic relations, including between these countries. In general, this often happens in the region. This is a form of showing dissatisfaction and exerting pressure.

What makes the situation even more piquant is the fact that Qatar is the location of the US Air Force Central Command base. But at the same time, it is noteworthy that the current sharp anti-Qatar steps by Riyadh and its allies were taken just a couple of weeks after Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, during which arms deals worth $110 billion were concluded. We should not lose sight of that Qatar is preparing to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022.

Another conflict is flaring up in the Middle East. This time in the camp of pro-American Middle Eastern monarchies and their dependent satellites. A number of countries in the Muslim world, the most notable of which are Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, suddenly and decisively took up arms against Qatar. Not only the usual political and diplomatic demarches in such cases were used, but also rather decisive measures of an economic nature, bordering on a blockade. Many reasonable (and not so reasonable) versions have been put forward about the reasons for this disagreement. All versions of the reasons for what is happening can be divided into two categories: 1) scenarios involving a direct initiative of the United States or its consent; 2) scenarios assuming that the conflict occurs without the participation of the United States. One thing is clear: regardless of whether this happens on the initiative of the United States itself or without its knowledge, what is happening clearly signals the weakness of the United States.

Version: the demonstrative flogging of Qatar occurs at the initiative of the United States

There is a group of scenarios that are based on the premise that the current persecution of Qatar is organized at the instigation of the United States. Theoretically this is possible variant. The motivation for this may be political and economic reasons.

Like many other vassal or semi-colonial countries, it is significantly dependent on the mother countries, but is not directly governed by them. This is a regulated system, when the behavior of a dependent country begins to go beyond the limits established by it, a control impulse (signal) follows, which encourages to stop the deviation. If the violator does not heed the warning, his exemplary punishment follows: from soft political incentives, through economic measures to severe military beating.

The political reasons for a demonstrative tough reaction could be, for example, the actions of armed formations controlled by Qatar (organizations that are commonly called terrorist) in active theaters of combat that are undesirable for the West: sabotage of decisions sent down the chains of command from imperialist centers, evasion of assigned tasks, double game, etc. Responsibility for a series of strange inferior terrorist attacks in Western European countries, if this is not a game of Western intelligence services, can also theoretically be assigned to Qatar, according to the results of analytics.

The economic reason for the attack on Qatar could be, for example, the desire for some redistribution of the liquefied gas market (which American companies are striving for, and because of which, in particular, an active war is being waged with Gazprom pipes in order to recapture the “fat” European market). In addition, Qatar's main supplies are to countries South-East Asia, therefore, the United States itself will not suffer direct damage from possible interruptions in raw material supplies.

There may be other logical reasons, emanating from the conflict of interests that is always present in capitalist competitive economies and politics (even between the closest allies).

What is common, however, is that until now the United States has provided the necessary coercion in a soft, semi-automatic mode. It was the United States and other Western countries that were the source of the current accumulated wealth of the Middle Eastern monarchies. These monarchies understood the hints and demands of the hegemon at a glance. In rare cases, targeted, almost surgical measures were used for those who were especially slow-witted (such as targeted killings or palace coups), which did not stretch over time and did not attract too much attention due to their routine nature. This process is clearly depicted in an intriguing artistic form, for example, in the political thriller Syriana (2005) (the politically correct title, falsely alluding to Syria, was specially chosen so as not to offend any of the loyal vassals, but in fact the film is clearly talking about one of the kingdoms of the Persian Gulf).

If the United States, in dealing with its obedient puppets, is forced to change tactics and resort to a noisy campaign, which is usually used for recalcitrant and ideologically alien regimes, then the United States is losing its grip and control, and maintaining the current state of affairs requires additional efforts.

Version: conflict with Qatar is not part of US plans

Scenarios in which mutual conflict in the camp of the West's loyal Middle Eastern allies may not be part of US plans may also be logically consistent.

From time immemorial, Middle Eastern monarchies have been in conflict with each other, here both the great economic interests of entire countries collide in the struggle for spheres of influence and dominance, as well as considerable personal ambitions (after all, this region breaks all world records in the number of kings and princes and the size of the private sector). By the way, it is precisely for this reason that Islam historically could not remain the single all-unifying religion and ideology that it was intended to be, and during the course of internecine conflicts it fell apart into many competing and opposing movements (the differences between which are often purely nominal).

Saudi Arabia, for example, claims a historical leading role in the region and in the Muslim world in general. Qatar, once a provincial province now rich and showing global ambitions, is seen as an upstart by neighboring monarchs.

This conflict of influence and ambitions had arisen between monarchies before, but usually did not go beyond demarches. Since the West, which dominated them, was interested in maintaining the current order in the camp of its allies. Recently, mutual hostility between the Saudis and Qatar again manifested itself in the form of a real mass brawl at a joint summit on oil production and the oil market (they tried to hush up the incident, but a mobile recording from an eyewitness was leaked online).

If today an open conflict arises between loyal vassals, contrary to the opinion of the United States, moving from small local skirmishes and demarches to large-scale political and economic actions (which usually precede the outbreak of full-fledged military conflicts), then this clearly signals that the deterrent mechanisms that have previously proven their effectiveness no longer work. The initiators of the conflict are no longer afraid of the US reaction or, to begin with, they are simply testing what this reaction will be. This is also a bad sign for Western dominance.

Conclusion

Now neighboring Saudi Arabia, which has the same eggs, only in profile, and on which there is no place to put a stamp, has literally opened its eyes: someone among us is spreading and supporting terrorism! It is obvious that the current denunciation of Qatar is just a plausible pretext for confrontation.

This region has always been a reserve of reaction, since it was protected by the West from any conflicts and painful social changes.

The fact that a serious conflict is brewing in the region speaks of the growing weakness of the West and specifically the United States.